Announcement Banner Background
January 21, 2022The Latest on Long-term (20+ years) Risk & Opportunity Register

In December 2021, the Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB) adopted the Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register. OIPI will provide an annual update on the identified risks and opportunities. Please utilize InteractVTrans DataExplorer to view and download jurisdiction-specific data.

Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register

VTrans Long-term Planning focuses on the impacts of Climate, Technological Advancements, Consumption Patterns, and Socio-demographic Changes on Virginia’s transportation system over the next 20 years. These four powerful and transformative forces are known as Megatrends. The policy includes five steps to develop a long-term risk register for transportation agencies to monitor.

Policy for the Development and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register

The policy to develop a long-term plan (20+ years) includes five steps to identify, analyze, and monitor powerful and transformative trends that impact the transportation system. This policy is included as Chapter 6 of the VTrans Policy Guide. Practitioners such as planners and engineers can utilize VTrans Technical Guide: Development and Monitoring of Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register (v3) for the details and visit the InteractVTrans Data Explorer to view the data.

Step 1: Identify Megatrends (powerful and transformative forces) and Macrotrends (emerging patterns of change)
Share this content:
Step 2: Develop Metrics for CTB Goals
Share this content:
Step 3: Estimate Impacts of Mega and Macrotrends on CTB Goal Metrics
Share this content:
Step 4: Develop Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register
Share this content:
Step 5: Track Macrotrends
Share this content:

Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goals

The cumulative impacts of the four Megatrends (Climate, Technological Advancements, Consumption Patterns, and Socio-demographic Changes) on each of the five CTB Goals is estimated. There is significant uncertainty around the forecasts; therefore, three scenarios - High, Medium, and Low Impacts - are developed.

VMT Index: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal A

(VMT Index estimates change in Vehicles Miles Traveled (VMT) compared to the 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario.)

Loading

Shared Mobility Index: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal B

(Shared Mobility Index estimates urban auto single-occupancy VMT switchable to Micromobility + Ridesourcing compared to the 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario.)

Loading

Safety Index: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal C

(Safety Index estimates change in the number of crashes involving fatalities + serious injuries compared to the 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario.)

Loading

At-Risk Roadways: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal D

(At-Risk Roadways estimates number of directional roadway miles at-risk from flooding.)

Loading


Tailpipe Emissions Index: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal E

(Tailpipe Emissions Index estimates change in tailpipe emissions Compared to the 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario.)

Loading

VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register

The Policy for the Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk& Opportunity Register identifies long-term risks and opportunities for Virginia's transportation system due to the four Megatrends (Climate, Technological Advancements, Consumption Patterns, and Socio-demographic Changes).


Select...
Viewing 19 of 19 results
1: A large number of the state's roadways are at risk of flooding
Share this content:
2: Several unknown and unquantified flooding risks are present
Share this content:
3: Impacts of increased flooding risk are disproportionately higher for certain geographic areas and populations
Share this content:
4: Proactively eliminate or mitigate identified flooding risks
Share this content:
5: Increase the state's preparedness to address other macrotrends associated with the climate megatrend
Share this content:
6: Greater wear-and-tear of the transportation system due to increased vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and increase in average vehicle weight
Share this content:
7: Improve the state's ability to manage a transportation system with a high number of highly autonomous vehicles
Share this content:
8: Maximize safety benefits offered by highly autonomous vehicles, especially those with Automated Driving Systems
Share this content:
9: Higher vehicle miles traveled (VMT) for each unit of economic activity compared to the present fleet
Share this content:
10: Minimize environmental impacts of the transportation system development
Share this content:
11: Increase in curb access conflicts in urbanized areas
Share this content:
12: Projected growth in shared mobility (micromobility and ridesourcing) does not provide measurable transportation system benefits
Share this content:
13: Benefits of shared mobility are not equally accessible by all areas and population segments
Share this content:
14: Utilization of shared mobility services to improve accessibility
Share this content:
15: Improve the state's ability to manage a transportation system with high number of shared mobility vehicles
Share this content:
16: Proactively eliminate or mitigate transportation impacts associated with e-commerce including those related to large warehouse and distribution centers
Share this content:
17: Improve state's ability to proactively manage transportation impacts associated with greater automation of production and services
Share this content:
18: Maximize utilization of workplace flexibility for telework capable jobs
Share this content:
19: Transportation system and services are unable to meet mobility needs of Virginians age 65 and older
Share this content:

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Looking for more specific information about the Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register? Find more information on our Frequently Asked Questions web page.