By identifying long-term risk and opportunities, we are not trying to predict the future, but rather prepare so that we are more aware and informed of possible gradual or systemic changes coming our way. Long-term risk and opportunities will be more policy-oriented, not project- or location-based. The long-term risk and opportunity register will the allow the CTB to track and monitor risks and opportunities, so that actions can be taken to mitigate risks and accentuate impacts of opportunities We plan to revisit the register on an annual basis through the VTrans Trend Trackers.
The planning horizon of year 2045 was established with consideration of state and federal requirements, as well as direction received from the Commonwealth Transportation Board.
The Virginia Code requires “at least a 20-year planning horizon” (VA Code § 33.2-353) for the statewide transportation plan. The code of federal regulations also requires “a minimum 20-year forecast period” (23 CFR § 450.216) at the time of the plan adoption.
In December 2018, CTB directed OIPI to:
- Evaluate mid‐ and long‐term viability of federal, state, and regional revenues for multimodal transportation investments
- Identify surface transportation infrastructure needs and associated policy and legislative requirements to ensure Virginia’s readiness for shared mobility, and autonomous & connected vehicles
- Complete a resiliency assessment of Virginia's multimodal network from a transportation planning perspective.
In January 2020, CTB directed OIPI to develop scenarios to assess the impacts of divergent trends to identify Long-term Needs.
In July 2020, OIPI presented a framework for the development of VTrans Long-term Needs to the CTB.
In March 2021, CTB reaffirmed that direction provided in January 2020 to
“……develop VTrans Strategic Actions to advance the Board’s Vision and Goals adopted on January 15, 2020 by providing policy- and program-specific recommendations to address the identified and prioritized VTrans Mid-term Needs, as well as to address the VTrans Long-term Needs identified based on divergent future trends and a vulnerability assessment per the policy framework presented to the Board on July 14, 2020. “
In December 2021, the Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB) adopted the Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register. OIPI will provide an annual update on the identified risks and opportunities.