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January 21, 2022The Latest on Consumption Megatrend

In December 2021, the Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB) adopted the Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register. OIPI will provide an annual update on the identified risks and opportunities. Please utilize InteractVTrans DataExplorer to view and download jurisdiction-specific data.

VTrans Megatrend 3: Consumption Patterns

VTrans Policy for the Development and Monitoring of Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register identifies four Megatrends (Climate, Technological Advancements, Consumption Patterns, and Socio-demographic Changes). This web page focuses on Megatrend # 3: Consumption Patterns, which includes the following Macrotrends.
  • Growth in E-commerce
  • Greater Automation of Production and Services

There is significant uncertainty around the forecasts; therefore, three scenarios - High, Medium, and Low Impacts - are developed for each Macrotrend. Finally, cumulative impacts of this and other macrotrends are estimated in Step 3 of the policy (web page).

Macrotrend # 5: Growth in E-commerce

The drivers of this macrotrend include (1) convenience and customer expectations; (2) willingness to pay for delivery services; and (3) willingness to pay for delivery shipping services. The following chart shows the projected market share of e-commerce in a medium impact scenario.


E-commerce Market Share of Business-to-Business (B2B) and Business-to-Consumer (B2C) trade, Medium Impact Scenario, 2045

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Macrotrend # 6: Greater Automation of Production and Services

The drivers of this macrotrend include (1) growth of e-commerce; (2) expanded use of just-in-time lean production; (3) machine learning and artificial intelligence; and (4) digitization of production and distribution. The following chart shows the projected the projected market share of 3D printing output and drone deliveries in a medium impact scenario.


Market Shares of 3D Printing Output and Drone Deliveries, Medium Impact Scenario, 2045

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Cumulative Impacts of Mega and Macrotrends on Virginia’s Transportation Goals

Cumulative impacts and the resulting risks and opportunities this and other Macrotrends are available on this webpage: Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register. Please refer to the following resources for more information:

Noteworthy Items

  • The intent is to prepare, not predict. This risk-based approach allows for identification and analysis of a range of potential impacts to help determine temporal proximity and relative priority.
  • Policy drivers can modify trends to achieve more desirable outcomes.
  • The Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register allows for monitoring and annual reporting of these trends.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Looking for more specific information about the Policy for the Development and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register? Find more information on our Frequently Asked Questions page