VTrans Megatrend 1: Climate
In the first step for the Policy for the Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register VTrans identifies four Megatrends (Climate, Technology, Consumption, and Socio-Demographics). This webpage focuses on Megatrend # 1: Climate, which includes the following Macrotrend. This macrotrend is also reviewed as a part of the VTrans Vulnerability Assessment (see below). Given the uncertainty, three estimates (High, Medium, and Low) are developed for each of the Macrotrends. Cumulative impacts of these three and other macrotrends are estimated in Step 3 of the policy.
Macrotrend # 1: Increase in Flooding Risk
Macrotrend Drivers
- Emissions of heat-trapping gases
Number of Roadways At Risk from Flooding
Methodology and Results
The VTrans Vulnerability Assessment focuses on flooding risks associated with three hazards: (1) sea level rise; (2) storm surge; and, (3) inland/riverine flooding.
What It Means for the Transportation System (In Isolation)
The projected increases in flooding risk are estimated to impact nearly 1,100 directional roadway miles due to sea level rise, 13,100 directional miles due to storm surge, and 17,900 directional miles due to inland/riverine flooding in the medium scenario.
Please refer to the following resources for more information:
- VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register webpage
- The detailed methodology for this assessment, as well as additional background information, can be found in the VTrans Vulnerability Assessment Technical Memorandum. This document is directed towards practitioners or others who would like to know more details about the methods and procedures.
- The Technical Guide for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register for details on how these estimates are utilized to identify risks and opportunities.
- InteractVTrans Data Explorer to view data related to this and other macrotrends.
Cumulative Impacts of these Macrotrends on Virginia’s Transportation Goals
Cumulative impacts of this and other macrotrends are identified in Step 3 of the Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register.
Refer to the Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register page for more information.
Noteworthy Items
- The intent is to prepare, not predict. This risk-based approach allows for identification and analysis of a range of potential impacts to help determine temporal proximity and relative priority.
- Policy drivers can modify trends to achieve more desirable outcomes.
- The Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register allows for monitoring and annual reporting of these trends.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Looking for more specific information about the Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register? Find more information on our Frequently Asked Questions page